Outlooks 2026: Global Asset Management

Executive Summary

Global Asset Management Outlook 2026 – Stable as revenue grows, competition squeezes margins

Our outlook for the global asset management industry in 2026 remains stable, reflecting our expectation that lower interest rates and steady, but subdued, economic growth globally in the next 12-18 months will support growth in assets under management (AUM) and revenue.

Key takeaways:

• Economic growth and slightly lower interest rates create positive operating conditions. Equity markets, after experiencing some volatility during the first half of 2025, have performed well year-to-date in the US, European and Asian markets. However, volatility will likely pick up in 2026 because industries such as AI are vulnerable to a slowdown after several years of outperformance.
• Growth in AUM will improve revenue; margin impact mixed. AUM will expand, but growth will not be evenly distributed. Asset managers — typically larger firms — that offer the broadest selection of products and services will continue to take market share at the expense of small and medium-sized firms. Larger firms are also increasingly using AI tools to generate operating efficiencies. Asset managers globally face weakness in profitability from lower management fees and rising costs for personnel, technology and distribution. These higher costs, and increased competition, will continue to drive industry consolidation and partnerships.
• Industry organic growth will likely pick up. Organic growth has been difficult to generate for the industry despite robust market performance and a low interest rate environment for most of this decade. The average asset manager organic growth rate is just under 2% per year. Although traditional equity active management has experienced steady outflows for over a decade, industry organic growth will get a boost in 2026 from rising preferences for newer areas like active ETFs and customized SMAs and the expansion of investor access to private market investments.
• Alternative managers will benefit from an improving environment. In 2026, alternative asset managers will benefit from lower interest rates, a pickup in M&A activity, and deregulation. Private markets are likely to generate more than half the asset management industry's total revenue by 2030, because they currently produce about four times as much profit per $1 billion in assets under management as do traditional managers.

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